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    Friday, September 29, 2006

    Saturday's Fun and A couple of NFL Games

    Slump. What causes a slump? Tons of psychological and statistical research has gone into trying to answer this age old question. Well the Phillies and me are mired in them right now. My season will go on while theirs will likely end this weekend. I would like to give the Phillies credit for playing themselves back into contention after the management started building for next season. I also give the management credit for scraping up some solid veterans like Moyer and Connine to help out and maybe even contribute next year. No more Turk Wendells under this administration.

    Back to college football, I am heading up to Penn State and hosting the NU Alumni Club of Philadelphia's tailgate in the fields around Beaver Stadium. Hopefully the Cats don't embarrass themselves. Actually the Nevada game kind of marked the beginning of the slump when Nevada scores a late defensive TD to make the over and to cover up NU.

    Here at the picks.

    Wisconsin -11 at Indiana.

    Illinois/Michigan State over 55.5.

    Houston +16 at Miami. After a disappointing last season and a rocky start, Houston has emerged as a real contender in their conference this season and maybe ready to make some national noise this week. Miami had two weeks to stew over a bad loss to Louisville and I am not expecting improvement to come from that time off.

    Virginia/Duke under 35.5. Two inept teams. Will anyone score points?

    Syracuse -5 over Wyoming.

    Clemson -33 over La. Tech.

    Purdue/Notre Dame over 61. Scorefest for the third week in a row for Notre Dame and Purdue since neither team plays Defense.

    Baylor +1.5 over Kansas St.

    Washington St. +17 over USC.
    USC/Washington St. over 49.5. USC is not playing that well on offense so far and their defense has not been challenged by their opponents. Look for a 35-24 game or something like that.

    Alabama +15.5 at Florida.
    Alabama/Florida under 39.5. Florida's high powered offense has struggled lately as their senior QB has not always played like the leader he needs to be. Both teams are strong on the defensive side of the ball and look for a game within 10 points that low scoring.

    LSU -33.5 over Mississippi St. Mississippi State might have gained a little confidence out of conference but they may still be scoreless in conference after this game.

    Texas A&M -2.5 over Texas Tech. A&M has ridden an easy schedule for a 4-0 start but this week they will show they are vastly improved and a contender to win 9 or 10 games this season.

    Georgia Tech +10.5 at Virginia Tech. Look for this to be defensive struggle and maybe an upset opportunity against a Hokie team that was unimpressive last week and had a key play suspended for this week's game.

    Iowa +7 over Ohio St.

    Michigan -9.5 at Minnesota. Michigan's speed on the dome turf will give them the advantage on the road.

    Memphis +14 over Tennessee. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS against Memphis. This is always a huge game on the Tigers schedule where it is just another week out of the conference for an inconsistent Tennessee.

    Nevada -3.5 at UNLV. Rocky Hinds is off to a Rocky start at UNLV (ha ha). Nevada should easily win this intra-state battle.

    Washington +3.5 at Arizona. Washington is a little underated comming of a big win over UCLA.


    NFL

    New Orleans +7 at Carolina. Carolina is struggling and New Orleans has strong momentum.

    Jacksonville -3 at Washington. Time for Jacksonville to rebound after a tough loss to Indy.

    Thursday, September 28, 2006

    Tonight and Tomorrow night's action

    I wanted to get these posted before the lines move too much.

    Auburn -13.5 at South Carolina. Aurburn is well rested after an easy game last saturday. They will not be caught napping in Spurrier's den.

    TCU -5.5 over BYU. Horny Frogs demoralize the Mormons.

    And for Friday.

    Rutgers -4 at USF. Rutgers enters the TOP 25 for the first time in 30 years. I think they will wait for a bigger game to choke.

    More to come later. Will edit this post.

    Tuesday, September 26, 2006

    A losing weekend, BOO FUCKING HOO

    So my hot start cooled off a bit. Finally those close games that I was winning came back to end up losing on a late touchdown instead of winning. You know what I don't care, I am just ecstatic that Miami pulled though since they were my pick in the two suicide pools I am in.

    For the season I am now. 38 - 26 - 3. Still almost 60%.

    Play Southern Miss tonight -6 at UCF. Central Florida has lost their mojo from last season and Southern Miss plays solid Defense and finally has the running game they have missed the last few seasons.

    Thursday, September 21, 2006

    Saturday

    Conference play starts to kick in this weekend in the Big Ten for some teams and it will definitely show who are the pretenders in addition ND will seek to end up 2-1 on its 3 game gauntlet run of the Big Ten. All I know is that I think the ND/Mich St game with be high scoring.

    Michigan -13 over Wisconsin. After a big win, I don't see a letdown especially against an uninspired Wisconsin venturing out on the road. Wisconsin is still an important game for Michigan.

    Minnesota -3 at Purdue. Purdue has no defense and I would not even give their offense any credit for the points they have put up against weaker opponents. They could be the weakest 3-0 team in the nation. Another note, this game has one of the highest posted totals of the week but I am not sure I like it in either direction it really will just depend on whether Purdue scores.

    Clemson -16 over UNC. Normally I would say that this could a typical trap where UNC has sucked all season and will pull one out but not this week or season.

    Iowa -20.5 at Illinois. This is nice three game run of Iowa/Syr (13-20), Syr/Illinois (31-21), and then this game. Now if you look at just the game scores that would have Iowa by 17 and you have to add a few points for having Drew Tate back. I hope you follow my logic, but Iowa should be back at full steam this week.

    Buffalo +42 at Auburn. Auburn has another game on Thursday night against South Carolina so I don't see the starters being left in too long after the game is under control. Buffalo has also looked much less inept under New HC Turner Gill.

    Navy -4.5 over Tulsa. The Midshipmen have new confidence after a big road win. Should be a lower scoring game too.

    Virginia Tech -26.5 over Cincinnati. Well after Ohio St. bailed me out with a last minute field goal, I will have to stick with going against Cincy especially with a Virginia Tech coach who tends to cover big spreads.

    Texas -24.5 over Iowa St. Look for lots of turnovers from Iowa State's talented QB in Texas rout. Texas is like Virginia Tech with covering the larger number.

    Arizona St. at California. Which Cal team will show up now that they have to play another big game. I just think that this might be ASU's year.

    UCLA -3 at Washington. I am not sure why UCLA is so underrated this season and I don't think Washington is over the hump yet (but they are on their way back to being decent program).

    West Virginia -21 at East Carolina. Let The Good Times RUN! That should be the theme for West Virginia this season. Unless there is a hurricane that floods the field (it has happened before in Greenville, NC), the Mountaineers will not be slowed this week.

    Army +11.5 at Baylor. Sorry Air Force, I did not pick you too this week, but this Army team is better then last season and should put up a fight against Baylor in close game.

    Western Michigan -28 over Temple. I think I would even have to pick a few high school teams to beat Temple this season and Western Michigan should be a MAC contender so they can handle Temple although it is possible that the Owls might finally talley a TD.

    Wake Forest +2.5 at Mississippi. We could witness history this week with both Wake and Rutgers having good chance to go 4-0 and for the first times ever(not exactly sure)? Mississippi is bad and I am looking forward to watching an Egg Bowl later on between Miss and Miss St to see which team can score and get off the Goose Egg.

    Utah -8 at SDSU. Utah seems to have righted the ship and got the offense scoring again after a rough opener. With two inspired efforts, SDSU has come up empty and I am not sure if they have more gas in the tank.

    Boise St. -14.5 over Hawaii. Boise wins and covers at home. That just seems to be one of the rules of college football.

    Notre Dame/Michigan St. over 59. Both teams have offenses that will overpower the opposing Defense. I look for both teams to hit over 30 and the team with the ball last winning (most likely ND).

    USC -21 (i bought the line down) at Arizona. I think USC will play better on the road this season since they will feel less pressure there at least through this first half of the season. Arizona still is not good enough to cause a hiccup especially at this number.

    Hope you all have a good weekend and Happy New Year.

    Tuesday, September 19, 2006

    Three Weeks Down; Two Early Picks this week

    Well it was another good week with just college plays going 8-4-1. So far on the season I am 30-15-2, not bad for a mere amateur. I also want to tell you about another site I use for wagering and their contest which paid me $500 into my account two weeks ago. www.betjamaica.com. They have a Free Pick 2 and Free Pick 12 contest that gives out tons of prizes each week. I was shocked to actually win something from one of these sites.

    Thursday and Friday Picks

    Georgia Tech -17 over Virginia. Virginia has dissapointed all season long. Al Groh has not been able to control the great players he has recruited over past few years. Is there not enough for gang members to do in lilly white Charlottesville?

    Northwestern/Nevada Under 48.5. The NU defense should be able to control Nevada but their offense may not score.

    Thursday, September 14, 2006

    Saturday's Action

    Well I have to say that I am sad that my cautiousness about the NU-UNH battle last weekend was prophetically since NU laid an egg. Since I am in Chicago I am going to stay out for the game this Saturday against Eastern Michigan, where NU is a 17 point favorite. That seems a little high, but actually after seeing the Sagarin ratings that have UNH as a top 30 team it all makes sense.

    So I will be missing some great games on tv this Saturday while I am flying back hopefully I will catch some of the evening games back in Philly.

    BC -6 over BYU. I am not sold on BYU after burning me last weekend and I think BC should thrive after the tough conference test last Saturday.

    Temple/Minnesota over 53. This is just a gift, Minnesota will score 53 all by themselves. Temple is the worst team in Div 1-A.

    Ohio St. -29 over Cincinnati. I am still not sure Cincy has chosen a single QB and again against Ohio St. who cares.

    Rutgers -16.5 over Ohio. Ohio surprised me last week in a conference matchup, I don't think they will be as motivated against a hot Rutgers.

    Wisconsin -13.5 over SDSU. San Diego does not travel east very well and I think Wisconsin will beat up on them while they have an easy game on the schedule.

    Boise St. -7 at Wyoming. Boise St. is just the class of the conference.

    Pitt -3 over Michigan St. Amazingly enough Mich St. still seems to be underachievers again this year. Pitt is having the season everyone thought they would have last year.

    Florida -3.5 at Tennessee. I guess I can't get a consistent read on what Tennessee is doing this season. Florida just has too much talent this year to drop this tough game.

    Michigan/Notre Dame over 50. This game will be a shootout.

    Oregon -4.5 over Oklahoma. Well I am not sure what fashion decision the Beavers will make with their new uniforms this week but I do know they should be able to contain the one dimensional Oklahoma.

    Miami +4.5 at Louisville. Louisville will not be able to handle a Miami team that has more of its players back in the stable.

    Vanderbilt +6 over Arkansas. This Vandy team is playing some good football but just not getting over the hump. Look for them to bet the Hogs for the second year in a row.

    Wednesday, September 13, 2006

    Thursday

    Well Saturday was not as good as we had started but we were 8-7 and 11-7 on the week. I am traveling in the Midwest right now so I will just give you my Thursday play for now.

    West Virginia -16.5 over Maryland. West Virginia is a true juggernaut and should have no problem against Maryland who has not been able to dominate weaker teams.

    In addition, I would like to ad a plug for a friend, Brian Dilsheimer and his blog. He posts some selections and analysis every week and is just witty writer. Here is his site. http://www.dilsmusings.blogspot.com/

    Friday, September 08, 2006

    Saturday's Card

    I gave in and made a last minute NFL bet online at BetCRIS using my new Motorola Q phone. I could have just called it in but I love the online access. Of course, I walked into my poker game and found out most had put money on Miami, too bad, and in addition someone started to give me grief that Boise St. was loosing 14-0. Well F-them too all the way to 2-0 for me on the night. But in the meantime, Culpooper (intentional misspelling) was my starting QB in a fantasy league.

    Sorry for the babbling BS today. One more thing, you can subscribe to my blog so you will get an email everytime I post something (just incase someone cared).

    Va. Tech -12.5 at NC. Heels reeling after getting run over by Rutgers.

    Rutgers -10 over Illinois. Rutgers had a big road win and should cover this easily against an inferior team.

    Auburn -20.5 at Miss St. Does Miss St. have an offense, could be shutout for the second straight week.

    NIU -15 over Ohio U. Wolfe went to town against Ohio St, this should be an easy win.

    BC +2.5 over Clemson. BC should rebound after a terrible first game on the road. Clemson is untested.

    Notre Dame -7 (bought it down from 7.5) over Penn St. Possibly the most anticipated Penn State regular season game since they joined the Big Ten, will see them falter on the road in the shadow of TJ (Touchdown Jesus, of course).

    Bowling Green -27.5 over Buffalo. After playing the cheeseheads touch, BGSU should take care of business against the over confident Bison. (Well yes an win would make Buffalo overconfident since they will not win another this season.)

    LSU -15 over Arizona. Stoops still has no offense in the desert.

    Indiana -3.5 at Ball St. IU should romp in this intra-state clash.

    Iowa -19 at Syracuse. Do I really have to explain this?

    Tulsa +4 at BYU. Upset of the week here. BYU was weak against Arizona and will not be able to contain the Tulsa offense.

    Florida -23 over Central Florida. Florida has too much firepower.

    Oregon -3.5 at Fresno St. Oregon is a top 15 team; Fresno is just riding the coattails of their trackrecord.

    Tennessee -19.5 over Air Force. I have Volunteered.

    Toledo -10.5 at Western Mich. After a solid show in their opener, Toledo will notch a conference win.

    That's it for now. Not sure about the pro's yet this weekend.

    Thursday, September 07, 2006

    NFL Thursday

    Alright i gave in. Pittsburgh -1.5.

    Tuesday, September 05, 2006

    The weekend and Monday night football and the college weeknight games

    Well I have to say that the tradition of moving college football games to throughout labor weekend is slightly better then the Monday Football Doubleheader next Monday. I think the fan would have been better served by having the Doubleheader Thursday night when the season opening game is now played. Do we really need Rascal Flatts and Diddy (what happened to P) performing on TV before the game starts or do the people on the east coast need to stay up until two in the morning to catch the end of the second Monday Night Game? Oh well I guess we can do something for the west coasters once in a while.

    Well one thing we saw this weekend was that the road teams did very well against this weekend and the ones from the larger conferences dominated when they were supposed to. The MAC is not as strong as it has been over the last few years but will still play entertaining football against themselves. By the way did you notice that three Div 1-A teams (Colorado, Duke, New Mexico) lost to 1-AA teams? In addition, Kansas State only won by a point. Does this mean that the talent gap is shrinking further? Nope, just a few teams decided not to show up. As a Northwestern fan, I hope that the Wildcats don't make the same misstep against offensive powerhouse UNH. Keeping my fingers crossed.

    I was a little surprised at how good the week started enroute to an 11-4-1 record. Well with week 1 done now, we have a week that includes the NFL as well and more of my life will be spent in front of the TV and sitting in bars drinking beer.

    Boise St. -8 over Oregon St. The Broncos finally get a big conference team to come and play them. Former Coach Hawkins has a worse team in Colorado then he left in Boise and Oregon St. is a terrible early season road dog.

    Pitt -7.5 at Cincinnati. Hmmm. Dave Wanstadt has one solid QB in veteran Tyler Palko and Cincinnati is taking turns with different QB's in different quarters. Cincinnati also averaged under 4 yards per carry in their opener against a 1-AA opponent.

    Friday, September 01, 2006

    Saturday's Action and a Monday Play too

    Akron +17 at Penn St. I am not as sold as every other homer in PA that this PSU team will be any good. Akron returns a solid QB who leads a powerful offense. The Nittany Lions cannot turn the ball over or they could be looking at a very close game.

    Rutgers +5.5 at UNC. The Tar Heels are very inconsistent and should be pretty flat for this opener against the surging Scarlet Knights.

    Alabama -16 over Hawaii. Roll Tide.

    Cal +1.5 at Tennessee. Cal shows that they are a top 10 program as Tennessee shows that last season may not have been an aberration.

    Nebraska -21 (bought the line down) over La Tech. La Tech takes the money and lays an egg here.

    Florida -19.5 over Southern Miss. This is not the same Southern Miss that used to be feared by the big conference teams. As some might say, this program has "jumped the shark and needs some new blood". Florida takes a strong first step this season on the way to a big season.

    Houston -14 at Rice. Both teams are in Houston so no real home field advantage. Rice is scrapping its Flexbone offense for a more conventional way of losing this season.

    Texas -41 over North Texas. Also Play the Over 54.5 if you can. (I did). Texas has killed its creampuff opponents to start the season the last three years and this year looks no different with new players trying to prove themselves for the Longhorns.

    Alright this is all I have so far and I might edit this to ad a few more plays before the end of today.

    Last night and the weekend

    What a great way to start off the season last night. I am not just talking about my 4-0-1 record on the night but just the fact that college football is back on the airwaves and a ton of games were on TV. I spent the first part of the evening out at Fox and Hound with the Northwestern crew watching the Wildcats burst out to 21 2nd half points en-route to an easy victory. I was also impressed with the more then 35 alums and friends who showed to watch.

    I also caught bits and pieces of some other games. BC was totally unimpressive last night and better play some defense before they play some conference games. Arizona State was also totally flat until the 4th quarter and saved embarrassment against against a 1-AA opponent. It is quite funny that line was perfect for the Temple - Buffalo game (the other game of the night that was nil-nil at the halftime). I also saw some of the UTEP-SDSU game. Yes UTEP won but Jordan Palmer is not very good throwing 4 picks (2 to 3 of them were totally his fault).

    Did anyone notice how the NCAA has tried to make the college game more like the NFL by shortening the game? I think they over did it. The starting of the clock after they set the ball on a change of possession is ridiculous. I agree about the clock running when the ball is in the air on kickoff but this is going too far. They should maybe start the play clock quicker but that is all. I love that college football games used to take 3:30 to 4 hours to play and that teams could come back from huge deficits in the 4th quarter. Let's hope that these new rules don't ruin the game, but so far I am not so happy.

    Also congrats to Andre Agassi for prolonging his career again last night in another tough match. He is a true class act and shows how someone can evolve during their career as a top athlete in the spotlight. I guess T.O. is not a tennis fan.

    Tonight:
    Nevada (+12.5) at Fresno St. Fresno normally has bigger fish to try to start off a season but after loosing their long time QB and running back tandem in the offseason Nevada could be a stumbling block.