Week 8: Saturday's Fun

Well had a good start to the weekend last night going 2-1, maybe this will be the start of a profitable weekend.

BC did not play well but did what they needed to do unlike the last few #2 teams in the land.

Saturday

South Florida -4 at UConn and Under 45.5. U Conn finally faces a strong team this week and it will be interesting to see what happens. Although they are at home, they face a strong South Florida team that knows how to play and win low scoring games. I like USF to put up a win here by 11. 21-10.

Indiana/Wisconsin over 58. I am not smelling a lot of defense in this game.

Wake Forest-5.5 over North Carolina. If this were some sort of game that mattered, I might think UNC would keep it close but this is a meaningless game for them in a lost season.

Ball State +14 at Illinois. Ball State is playing a tough schedule this season and has been great in all of their non-conf games so far. This is a warm up before playing at instate rival Indiana but they are coming of a confidence building win at Western Michigan. 4-0 ATS on the road this season, I will stick with Ball State.

Vanderbilt -13.5 over Miami-OH. Each team faces a similar dilemma right now over whether Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde will show up to play. Vandy again has the potential to go bowling after an upset win last week at South Carolina.

Kansas -3 at Texas A&M. Things are not looking up at A&M despite a 6-2 record since it is more likely then not they will have a new HC next year. I like Kansas to rise up to the occasion and pull out a big road win.

Tulane -1.5 over Memphis. Tulane is going to run all over Memphis.

Oregon -3 over USC. Quack Quack, Ducks are looking to change some trends against SC this week at home.

Clemson -3 at Maryland.

Virginia -3 at NC State.

Both these ACC picks are similar for me. They just are what they are. I hate all 4 teams but NC State blows and Virginia has handled adversity well this season. Maryland's QB is banged up and Clemson is coming off a total romp. Hopefully the offense will not forget what to to.

Kentucky -14 over Mississippi St. Kentucky finally has an easier game this week. I look for them to get healthy and happy in a big way.

New Mexico St. +29.5 at Hawaii. Hawaii might a little rusty and NMST has their starting QB Holbrook back in the saddle.

MTSU -12.5 at North Texas. North Texas is terrible.

Week 8: Thursday and Friday

So we got back on the winning side of things last Saturday and was ahead for the week just slightly. Sorry for the lack of comments with my picks but sometimes you just run out of time.

Thursday Night:

Bonus we get two games. Forget the boring World Series.

Boston College +3 at Va Tech. BC is not getting much respect this week as one of 5 unbeatens left in the country going into Lane Stadium as a small dog. Virginia Tech has two qb's neither of whom are terrible nor exciting. BC coming off an extra few days rest should be able to win straight up. BC was my pick to win the ACC at the beginning of the year and I think they will stay on track.

Air Force +6 at New Mexico and UNDER 47. Air Force has played solid defense all year and has some banged up players on offense. I still think they will cover and possibly win straight up but this will be a low scoring grind it out game.

Friday:

Boise St. -3 at Fresno St. and OVER 63.5. Yeah Fresno State is not as bad as they were last year but Boise should win by double digits and in case they don't, it will be a high score affair.

More tomorrow with write-ups.

Week 7: Saturdays Picks

West Virginia -24 over Miss St

Indiana +7 over Penn St.

Wake Forest -3 at Navy

Kansas -3 at Colorado

Rice (Even) over Memphis

Tennessee (Even) at Alabama

Oklahoma -30 at Iowa St

Oregon -13 at Washington

Kentucky +6.5 over Florida

Boise St/ La Tech over 55. Key Play

Texas -24 at Baylor

Cincinnati -9.5 at Pitt. Key Play

New Mexico St -9.5 over Idaho

Auburn +10.5 at LSU

Good luck.

Week 7: Traveling Again.

I am traveling again this week so here are my early games for the weekend. Go Sox (just so it is more fun to be here on Saturday night.)

Thursday Night

South Florida -2 at Rutgers. (Key Play). USF is the Rutgers of last year but they are more talented and better prepared to handle success. After a meteoric rise to #2 in the rankings, USF will not slip up on the road.

Utah +3.5 at TCU. Two inconsistent teams here but the Utes winning three in a row seem to have their house back in order.

Friday Night.

Louisville -3 at U Conn. AND UNDER 62. U Conn is the worst 5-1 team in the land. I think the Louisville offense will score and the defense will step up for the second week in a row and force turnovers. I see Louisville winning and UConn not getting above 21 points.

Week 6: Saturday

Sorry so late today.

Purdue/Michigan over 55.5. I am not sure who will win this high scoring affair but I know that it will be high scoring.

South Carolina -7 at UNC. I don't see the Tar Heels having the ability to pull off a big upset two weeks in a row.

Cincinnati -10 over Louisville and Louisville/Cincinnati under 67. The Cincinnati defense will slow down the Louisville offense and cover the game.

Toledo +4.5 at Buffalo. Buffalo has come along over the last few years but they have not come far enough to be favored against a Toledo team having a tough season.

Kansas -27 over Baylor.

Tennessee/Mississippi St over 50. Tennessee is all about the offense this season and I think Mississippi State will even score into the 20s in a losing effort.

Illinois -4.5 at Iowa. I will stick with the hot team against the team that has lost 8 straight conference games.

BC -13.5 at ND. (Key Play) Big deal, ND won a game. That was only possible due to facing a third string walk-on QB for most of game against UCLA. I will say the Notre Dame defense is definitely their strength but not strong enough to have an impact on BC.

Air Force +3 at Colorado St.

Kentucky +9.5 over LSU. Maybe the extra two days and the chance to watch LSU struggle against Florida will give Kentucky a better chance to upset the Number One team.

U Conn/Virginia over 44. Are these defenses that good? I think the offenses will open up this week.

Indiana +3.5 at Michigan St. Sticking with the hot team here against the team who is in the midst of their annual meltdown.

Missouri +12 at Oklahoma. This will be a close game.

Good Luck. Maybe some NFL tomorrow.

Week 6: Thursday and Friday

I realized after all my analysis in my last writing that there was no conclusion. I think that Hawaii will possibly run the table and if they do a BCS bid could be waiting for them. (They will not really deserve it unlike Boise St last season.) Otherwise I think there will not be two undefeated teams facing off for the National Championship and maybe even two teams with one loss facing off. How ever it is, it should be interesting as always.

Thursday night:

Florida St -5.5 at Wake Forest. Last season, Wake did what was thought to be impossible, go to Florida State and shut them out. I smell revenge this season.

Friday night:

Hawaii -18 at San Jose St. Hawaii finally gets some TV time and they should enjoy dismantling a weak San Jose St. team. It would be nice to see Brennan make it through more of a game though.

More later or tomorrow.

Week 6 Wrap Up and Why I Blog

Well my record the last two weeks while it has not terrible has been well into the negative territory has caused me to think about why I do this. And I realized I have not been doing much writing this season so I am going to get back to the basics posting my picks earlier in the week and writing more.



So let me tell you a little story, after Saturday's plays, I was looking like I would finally have to go meet my bookie. This would be a first time experience for me since I had been solely an Internet gambler until this season. In an attempt to delay this inevitable meeting I decided to bet 4 NFL games on Sunday and I would need to go 4-0 to get me back under my limit. After being out most of the day and not watching the first half of the Packer game, I noticed that I was 3-0 and holding Green Bay -1 or 2 (can't remember) with the lead and playing well. I was hoping that I could avoid being past my limit but we all know the Bears came back and I wait for the call to pay the piper. (Unfortunately for me he is still alive, I have to meet up with him.)



Lets look at the Undefeated Teams Left in College Football and their odds of running the table.



LSU - Survived a tough test this past weekend against Florida but came back and won the game. LSU still has some conference games against teams who could step up to beat them and they will have a conference championship game (2-1).

Ohio State - The defense looks good actually great, shutting down Purdue on the road was impressive. The schedule is okay but it looks like they will have their 4 hardest games the last 4 weeks of the season, at Penn State and Michigan, and hosting Wisconsin and Illinois. They could lose any of these 4 games. (3-1)

California - They are a solid team with athletes on both sides of the ball. Their defense is porous at times and will slip them up somewhere along the way where they will lose in a shootout. (8-1)

Missouri - Not happening, especially with a conference championship game. Field Bet (20-1)

South Florida - It is amazing that the top 3 teams in the Big East heading into the season have suffered losses and yet there are still two (UConn does not count) undefeated conference teams who could run the table. Good defense and passionate coaching have gotten them this far, there are some scary games left for them including a trip to Rutgers. (5-1).

Arizona St. - 6-0 is great when you have played no one. No chance. Field Bet (20-1)

Boston College - It is nice to play 3 conference games to start the season especially when you go 3 and 0. BC has been quiet in their run so far this season winning games but not overwhelming anyone. The passing game is solid and so is the defense. Even though it was against Bowling Green I was impress with the huge score they put up. Tough games left and a conference championship game (I actually have money on them to win the ACC). I think this veteran team will continue under the radar and may pull it all off. (4-1).

Kansas - Rock Chalk Jayhawk - ha ha. This is not basketball. They will have at least one loss before playing Missouri to finish the regular season schedule. Field Bet (20-1).

Cincinnati - Playing at USF later in the season will be tough, but Cinderella slipper maybe fitting for a Bearcat Paw this year. I like the turnover margin (that was not even a factor in the Rutgers game), some teams just have years where the ball falls their way. (4-1)

Hawaii- Boise St. and Washington at home to finish the season, hmmm. I like Hawaii and I feel for them having to play 2 1-AA teams because everyone else is scared (rumored Michigan backed out). They will not matter in the National Championship but could run the table and maybe get a BCS bid they would not deserve. (3-1).

UConn - Absolutely no no no no no chance here. If they finish with less then 3 losses it should be a great season for them. Field (20-1).

Week 6: College Plays

Weekend Plays

Saturday: (Remember key plays are double.)

Temple/Northern Ill over 52.5.

Syracuse/West Va over 56.

Cincinnati +4 at Rutgers. Different cinderella from the Big East this season. Why is everyone bashing Bearcats huge TO margin? Some teams just create lots of turnovers.

Wisconsin +2.5 at Illinois. Wrong team favored.

Indiana -13.5 over Minnesota. Minnesota sucks (sorry Dils, Northwestern does too right now as well.)

Miami -7 at UNC. (Key Play)

Ball St. -12.5 over CMU. (Key Play) Ball St. is hot so I am sticking with them.

Bowling Green +20 at Boston College. BC has been underperforming and has no reason not to against Bowling Green.

Wyoming -3 over TCU. There is a new sherrif in town.

UAB +18.5 at Miss St. Miss St should not be favored by this much against anyone.

Kansas St. -3.5 over Kansas. Kansas has blown teams out but they all suck.

Colorado -9 at Baylor. Colorado is back on track this season and a return to bowling is in sight.

Clemson -5.5 over Va. Tech.

Missouri -6 over Nebraska. Battle for the Big 12 North. Missouri lose a game but it will not be this one. They would rather have it be a huge letdown game.

Penn St. -9 over Iowa. Penn State rebounds this week.

Stanford/USC over 58.

UCF -3.5 at East Carolina. (Key Play). Too bad O'leary never got to Notre Dame.

LSU -7 over Florida.

Ohio St -7 at Purdue. (Key Play). Purdue has not played anyone and Ohio State is too tough.

USF -16.5 at FAU

Troy -18.5 at FIU

Virginia -10 at MTSU


Sunday

Boise -24 over New Mexico St.

Boise St./New Mexico St. over 62.

Week 6: Big SEC Game Tonight

Tonight there is a huge SEC matchup and a potential showcase game for one of the nation's best quarterbacks. I hope to be able to watch some of this game after the Phillies pull one out today.

Kentucky +3.5 at South Carolina. I am not sold on the South Carolina offense being able to keep up here. Their defense is strong but I am not sure LSU could keep the wildcats quiet for a whole game either. I am leaning toward calling an under here as well but not sure yet.

By the way, did anyone see the Rice/Southern Miss game last night? Wow was that insane, Southern Miss was -6 in turnovers but still almost came back to win.

Good luck tonight and may we get this week off to a better start.

Week 6: Wow finally a crappy week last week.

Sorry about last week, 11-15 in college with a key play win and 1-3 in the NFL sucks.

No play tonight. Will update tonight or tomorrow after the Phillies kick some ass against the Rockies.